From the supply perspective, in 2024, the new PVC production capacity will be 1.1 million tons (600,000 tons by calcium carbide method and 500,000 tons by ethylene method), the total domestic production capacity will reach 29.11 million tons, and the output will be 23.2846 million tons, an increase of 3.35% year-on-year. The supply is saturated and the industry concentration has not changed much.
In terms of demand, the performance in 2024 is relatively weak. The sluggish real estate industry has led to a continued sluggish demand for PVC terminals, limited domestic downstream infrastructure, and weak growth in domestic demand. Terminal enterprises are resistant to high prices, have a low willingness to stock up, and have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The actual transaction volume has not changed significantly.
In terms of imports and exports, China's total imports of polyvinyl chloride from January to November 2024 decreased by 41.65% year-on-year, while exports increased by 13.50% year-on-year. India, the main export destination, still has a supply gap due to the slow progress of local enterprises and imperfect infrastructure, and the BIS certification has been extended to June 26, 2025. Exports are expected to continue to grow.
Looking forward to 2025, the PVC market will still face challenges. It is expected that the new production capacity will be 2.1 million tons, but the main consumer real estate industry is still at a low level. Coupled with the limited impact of macroeconomic policies, demand may continue to be weak, and the oversupply state may continue. However, the import situation in the Indian market may improve, which will have a certain positive effect on exports.
At the same time, the global PVC market size has grown steadily, and Asia is the largest consumer region. It is widely used in many industries, such as flooring and wall in the construction field; it is common in food and pharmaceutical packaging in the packaging field; it is also used in electronics, automotive parts and other fields. And the market is moving towards sustainable development and expansion of application areas.